Comments for Combat Consulting http://www.combatconsulting.com Musings on getting the impossible done in hostile operational environments Wed, 02 Nov 2011 20:45:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= Comment on Contact Us by Michael Foster http://www.combatconsulting.com/contact/comment-page-1/#comment-701 Michael Foster Wed, 02 Nov 2011 20:45:12 +0000 http://www.combatconsultancy.com/?page_id=55#comment-701 The beginning of your web page is incorrect. Unfortunely, Colonel Boyd was never promoted to general in the U. S. Air Force. The beginning of your web page is incorrect. Unfortunely, Colonel Boyd was never promoted to general in the U. S. Air Force.

]]> Comment on Taleb's Black Swan Glossary by A Few Random Thoughts On Waves | Connect the Dots http://www.combatconsulting.com/talebs-black-swan-glossary/comment-page-1/#comment-463 A Few Random Thoughts On Waves | Connect the Dots Mon, 28 Feb 2011 09:38:11 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/talebs-black-swan-glossary#comment-463 [...] look for a pattern, a trend. Nothing terrible here, since it’s a retrospective analysis (aka narrative fallacy). Troubles come when we want to predict the future: we tend to rely too much on data, trends and [...] [...] look for a pattern, a trend. Nothing terrible here, since it’s a retrospective analysis (aka narrative fallacy). Troubles come when we want to predict the future: we tend to rely too much on data, trends and [...]

]]> Comment on Shadow IT via the Cloud by Simon Wardley http://www.combatconsulting.com/shadow-it-via-the-cloud/comment-page-1/#comment-198 Simon Wardley Mon, 06 Dec 2010 14:22:49 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/?p=477#comment-198 Thank you for the kind comment, much appreciated. The point about Jevons' paradox, is that all organisations are in competition with others and whilst cloud will reduce IT expenditure if our workloads stay the same, the result of the competition, the backlog of unmet demand and the increased rates of innovation is that we will just end up doing more stuff. You're spot on with that. On that note, it's no different to Moore's law. Whilst a $1000 will buy you considerably more computing resources today than in 1980, this doesn't mean our IT budgets have reduced by a corresponding amount. Quite the opposite, we've ended up doing more. As for the human constraints, as we move forwards we're likely to end up building higher order systems (i.e. think of mashups and developing on web platforms) with the underlying systems become stable and less visible (but no less essential) components. This is a normal effect. The result is that we will develop at much faster rates tomorrow, in much the same way that development today is much faster than when I started back in the 80's (due to underlying stable components like databases, frameworks, web services etc). The systems today are unimaginably complex and built at lightning speeds when considered in the light of programming in the 80's. We noticed this with one of the first PaaS offerings, Zimki in 2005/06. The speed of development became ridiculously fast, with entire new concepts being released live on the web in under an hour. Of course, this panoply of innovation consumed ever more underlying compute resources. Will cloud reduce IT expenditure? No more than Moore's law did. Will cloud get rid of sys-admins? Not even a massive increase in capabilities & automation due to orchestration tools is likely to lead to a reduction in sys-admins due to the explosion in scale and use of ephemeral architectures. Will cloud be green? On a per unit basis it'll be more efficient but you'll end up consuming vastly more units. The myths and misconceptions about cloud are a long tale of forgotten wisdom. Thank you for the kind comment, much appreciated.

The point about Jevons’ paradox, is that all organisations are in competition with others and whilst cloud will reduce IT expenditure if our workloads stay the same, the result of the competition, the backlog of unmet demand and the increased rates of innovation is that we will just end up doing more stuff. You’re spot on with that.

On that note, it’s no different to Moore’s law. Whilst a $1000 will buy you considerably more computing resources today than in 1980, this doesn’t mean our IT budgets have reduced by a corresponding amount. Quite the opposite, we’ve ended up doing more.

As for the human constraints, as we move forwards we’re likely to end up building higher order systems (i.e. think of mashups and developing on web platforms) with the underlying systems become stable and less visible (but no less essential) components. This is a normal effect.

The result is that we will develop at much faster rates tomorrow, in much the same way that development today is much faster than when I started back in the 80′s (due to underlying stable components like databases, frameworks, web services etc). The systems today are unimaginably complex and built at lightning speeds when considered in the light of programming in the 80′s.

We noticed this with one of the first PaaS offerings, Zimki in 2005/06. The speed of development became ridiculously fast, with entire new concepts being released live on the web in under an hour. Of course, this panoply of innovation consumed ever more underlying compute resources.

Will cloud reduce IT expenditure? No more than Moore’s law did.

Will cloud get rid of sys-admins? Not even a massive increase in capabilities & automation due to orchestration tools is likely to lead to a reduction in sys-admins due to the explosion in scale and use of ephemeral architectures.

Will cloud be green? On a per unit basis it’ll be more efficient but you’ll end up consuming vastly more units.

The myths and misconceptions about cloud are a long tale of forgotten wisdom.

]]> Comment on Divvy and Cinch by Mr. Oak http://www.combatconsulting.com/divvy-and-cinch/comment-page-1/#comment-197 Mr. Oak Sun, 05 Dec 2010 22:56:10 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/divvy-and-cinch/#comment-197 I like the article, but another alternative is Size Up, from the makers of Cinch. It's probably the most granular window size manager on Mac OS X, IMO. http://www.irradiatedsoftware.com/sizeup/ I like the article, but another alternative is Size Up, from the makers of Cinch. It’s probably the most granular window size manager on Mac OS X, IMO.

http://www.irradiatedsoftware.com/sizeup/

]]> Comment on Shadow IT via the Cloud by Bernard Golden http://www.combatconsulting.com/shadow-it-via-the-cloud/comment-page-1/#comment-154 Bernard Golden Fri, 22 Oct 2010 17:24:49 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/?p=477#comment-154 Hey, thanks for the shout out! Hey, thanks for the shout out!

]]> Comment on Drucker and Goldratt Concept Map by Jeff McNeill http://www.combatconsulting.com/drucker-and-goldratt-concept-map/comment-page-1/#comment-104 Jeff McNeill Fri, 03 Sep 2010 14:17:27 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/?p=455#comment-104 Actually, it was done using IHMC Cmap Lite, which is a true concept mapping application (vs. a mind map tool). Happy you found the document useful. Cheers, Jeff Actually, it was done using IHMC Cmap Lite, which is a true concept mapping application (vs. a mind map tool). Happy you found the document useful.

Cheers,
Jeff

]]> Comment on Taleb's Black Swan Glossary by A Few Random Thoughts On Waves | Personal Patterns http://www.combatconsulting.com/talebs-black-swan-glossary/comment-page-1/#comment-69 A Few Random Thoughts On Waves | Personal Patterns Sat, 10 Jul 2010 15:26:14 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/talebs-black-swan-glossary#comment-69 [...] look for a pattern, a trend. Nothing terrible here, since it’s a retrospective analysis (aka narrative fallacy). Troubles come when we want to predict the future: we tend to rely too much on data, trends and [...] [...] look for a pattern, a trend. Nothing terrible here, since it’s a retrospective analysis (aka narrative fallacy). Troubles come when we want to predict the future: we tend to rely too much on data, trends and [...]

]]> Comment on 50 more ways to improve your business by Dejan http://www.combatconsulting.com/50-more-ways-to-improve-your-business/comment-page-1/#comment-54 Dejan Mon, 08 Feb 2010 23:20:52 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/?p=432#comment-54 Very interesting and true reading! Glad that I found this. Very interesting and true reading! Glad that I found this.

]]> Comment on Design Thinking by jonathan http://www.combatconsulting.com/design-thinking/comment-page-1/#comment-53 jonathan Tue, 26 Jan 2010 15:54:46 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/design-thinking/#comment-53 Jason, as the man who introduced me to GTD it is fitting that you reminded me of the Natural Planning Model, a modified version of which we use operationally every day. Its great to see you poking around these parts. Please come by more often! I like the Crystal Garden Creativity method too. Problem is that I tend to supersaturate, grow my crystal, but then mourn the loss of every lopped off weaker connection. Jason, as the man who introduced me to GTD it is fitting that you reminded me of the Natural Planning Model, a modified version of which we use operationally every day.

Its great to see you poking around these parts. Please come by more often!

I like the Crystal Garden Creativity method too. Problem is that I tend to supersaturate, grow my crystal, but then mourn the loss of every lopped off weaker connection.

]]> Comment on Design Thinking by Jason Bates http://www.combatconsulting.com/design-thinking/comment-page-1/#comment-52 Jason Bates Tue, 26 Jan 2010 15:47:18 +0000 http://www.combatconsulting.com/design-thinking/#comment-52 Hey JD, You might also want to add David Allen's Natural Planning Model into the mix Which is interesting in that it highlights 'visioning' as a step rather than some of the more emergent steps in the other methods.... maybe due to the fact that the framework isn't just for solving discrete problems, but creating positive outcomes too. 1. Defining purpose and principles 2. Outcome visioning 3. Brainstorming 4. Organizing 5. Identifying next actions And then there is always my 'Crystal Garden Creativity' model to throw in the mix for something very left field. 1. Create a supersaturated solution 2. Dip a single crystal in 3. Allow to crystallize for a period of time 4. Harvest the crystal / cut the weaker connections Cheers, Jasina Hey JD,

You might also want to add David Allen’s Natural Planning Model into the mix
Which is interesting in that it highlights ‘visioning’ as a step rather than some of the more emergent steps in the other methods…. maybe due to the fact that the framework isn’t just for solving discrete problems, but creating positive outcomes too.

1. Defining purpose and principles
2. Outcome visioning
3. Brainstorming
4. Organizing
5. Identifying next actions

And then there is always my ‘Crystal Garden Creativity’ model to throw in the mix for something very left field.

1. Create a supersaturated solution
2. Dip a single crystal in
3. Allow to crystallize for a period of time
4. Harvest the crystal / cut the weaker connections

Cheers,

Jasina

]]>